lowtein

The Specials Scorecard

May 2026Sep 2026 · 172 cities · updated 2026-09-18

of 138,661 advertised specials we checked across the US & Canada

46.6%

were not below the government's published average price

The other 53.4% were genuine — below the StatCan/BLS average for their cut and region. That's the point of checking.

What this measures — in one breath

An advertised special = a flyer/online offer that classifies to one of Lowtein's tracked staple cuts, carries an honest per-unit price, and has a published government average (StatCan/BLS) for its cut and region. Offers without a government series or a derivable unit price are excluded — not counted either way. Eggs and fluid milk are also excluded: advertised offers there skew heavily premium-tier (organic, free-range, small-format) while the government series tracks the conventional tier — comparing them would measure the tier gap, not the special.

“Not below the average” is arithmetic, not an accusation: a price can sit above the average for good reasons (premium tier, small format, regional costs). We publish the aggregate so you can calibrate how much weight a “special” sticker deserves — city-level detail lives on every city page, priced item by item.

By country

✓ genuinenot below
Canada (83,095)47.5%52.5%
United States (55,566)62.2%37.8%

By category

✓ genuinenot below
Beef (29,319)64.4%35.6%
Dairy — butter, cheese, yogurt (eggs & milk excluded) (28,334)43.4%56.6%
Produce & pantry (25,871)52.9%47.1%
Pork (18,969)57.3%42.7%
Other staples (18,295)47.5%52.5%
Chicken (17,873)53.7%46.3%

By month

✓ genuinenot below
May 2026 (13,947)55.9%44.1%
Jun 2026 (24,697)52.7%47.3%
Jul 2026 (42,487)52.8%47.2%
Aug 2026 (32,028)52.6%47.4%
Sep 2026 (25,502)54.7%45.3%

Method: every offer is normalized to the government series' unit (per lb / L / dozen / 100 g) through the same pipeline that prices the city pages, then compared to the StatCan (Canada) or BLS (US) published average for its cut and region. No retailer-level claims are made or implied. Each week is scored once, against the government averages in effect at the time, then frozen — later baseline updates never re-write history. (The May–July 2026 seed period was scored against July's baselines.) Data © Lowtein, CC BY 4.0 — cite “Lowtein Specials Scorecard” with a link.

GROCERY PRICE INDEX ▸ · BASKET TRACKER ▸ · CITY PAGES ▸